EUR/USD (Desember 1)

Saat ini level harga EU berada pada kisaran pivot dan S1. Stoch 15-3-3 masih menunjukkan up-momentum, sementara stoch 5-3-3 terlihat seperti masih (atau sudah?) melakukan konsolidasi. Bila harga EU mampu menembus 1.5065, maka stoch 5-3-3 akan memperkuat posisi stoch 15-3-3 pada jalur up-momentumnya. Sebaliknya, bila level 1.4970 (S1) bisa dilewati hingga ke 1.4942 (S2), maka hal ini makin mempertegas indikator pada chart daily yang berada dalam tekanan jual.

R2: 1.5091
R1: 1.5062
PV: 1.5017
S1: 1.4970
S2: 1.4942

EUR/USD (November 30)

EUR/USD chart 4H, Jumat lalu mengalami penurunan yang cukup dalam (mungkin 200 pips lebih). Saat ini indikator pada chart 4H menunjukkan bahwa EUR/USD masih memiliki ruang untuk melanjutkan perjalanan ke atasnya dan harga telah menembus level R2 (1.5062). Bila harga 1.5098 mampu di tembus, bukan hal yang tidak mungkin level 1.5134 (R3) mampu disentuh. Sebaliknya, bila level 1.5134 tidak tersentuh, konfirmasi 1H untuk meletakkan pending order (sell limit/sell stop), tentu saja dibutuhkan, mengingat bahwa indikator di chart Daily justru menunjukkan bahwa EUR/USD sedang mengalami tekanan jual.

R3: 1.5134
R2: 1.5062
R1: 1.5018
PV: 1.4946
S1: 1.4875
S2: 1.4829

EUR/USD & AUD/USD (November 26)

EUR/USD. Indikator chart EU 4H, masih menunjukkan up momentum, sementara stochastic ada pada posisi flat di area over bought-nya. Pada chart daily, terlihat bahwa masih ada cukup ruang bagi macd + stoch, untuk terus melanjutkan running-up-nya. Meski demikian, koreksi di chart 4H masih mungkin terjadi, terutama jika stoch (15-3-3 dan 5-3-3) pada chart 4H, bersama-sama melengkung ke bawah, atau dibutuhkan konfirmasi 1H yang cukup meyakinkan kita bahwa EU sedang dalam tahapan koreksi terhadap momentum daily.

R1: 1.5154
PV: 1.5080
S1: 1.5005
S2: 1.4958

AUD/USD. Pada chart AU, 4H, koreksi terhadap daily sedang terjadi, setelah kemarin bersama-sama dengan pair EU terus menerus melakukan break level2 resistent. Saat ini level harga AU berada di kisaran S1. Bila break S2, ini akan mempertegas momentum 4H-nya.

R1: 0.9327
PV: 0.9274
S1: 0.9224
S2: 0.9193
S3: 0.9141

EUR/USD (November 25)

Di chart 4H, running price telah menyentuh upper channel. Sementara pada chart Daily, stoch + macd justru terlihat seperti mengkonfirmasi momentum ke atasnya. Meski demikian, saya masih butuh konfirmasi chart 1H dan 4H pada sore atau malam hari nanti, untuk entri order posisi. Saat ini, running harga masih tertahan di level2 1.4980/98 (R2), bila harga mencapai level 1.5023 hingga ke 1.5045, maka pergerakan ini mempertegas konfirmasi dari indikator di chart daily. Sebaliknya, bila 1.5007 tidak mampu di tembus, maka chart 4h kemungkinan besar akan mengkonfirmasi posisi short/sell.

R3: 1.5045
R2: 1.4995
R1: 1.4983
S1: 1.4906
S2: 1.4882

EUR/USD (November 24)

Hari ini, EU pada chart 4H kembali mengalami tekanan jual. Momentum ini akan semakin jelas bila level 1.4898 berhasil dilalui hingga ke 1.4865 (S1). Sebaliknya, bila level 1.4993 dan kemudian 1.5032 berhasil ditembus, maka kemungkinan besar ini mengkonfirmasi chart daily yang masih cenderung dalam keadaan flat.

R2: 1.5032
R1: 1.4993
S1: 1.4865
S2: 1.4826
S3: 1.4764

EUR/USD (November 23)

I am back ! (setelah seminggu bedrest di rumah, karena gejala typhus). Langsung saja kita bahas pair EU pada chart 4H. Indikator (macd+stoch) menunjukkan bahwa peluang untuk (paling tidak) menyentuh upper channel, masih terbuka (mengingat bahwa harga saat ini bergerak di kisaran R2). Sedangkan pada chart daily, indikator menunjukkan gerakan yang flat dan cenderung turun, sehingga menempatkan pending order (sell limit) barangkali juga patut diperhitungkan.

R3: 1.4997
R2: 1.4946
R1: 1.4914
S1: 1.4813
S2: 1.4781
S3: 1.4730

EUR/USD (November 13)

Hari ini, stochastic 15-3-3 & 5-3-3 (chart Daily) mulai kehilangan momentumnya dan menunjukan tekanan jual, macd (5-12-3) ikut mendukung situasi ini. Secara teknikal penurunan harga masih bisa terjadi, apalagi juga support (S2: 1.4772) berhasil ditembus. Pada situasi ini (seperti biasa) saya lebih suka mengamati chart 1H dan 4H untuk mencari konfirmasi entri, dan tentu saja, menghindari (atau mencermati) ketika ada data yang hendak di-release hari ini (2:00pm WIB EUR - German Prelim GDP q/q, 8:30pm WIB USD - Trade Balance)

R3: 1.5089
R2: 1.5015
R1: 1.4967
S1: 1.4820
S2: 1.4772
S3: 1.4698

EUR/USD (November 12)

Pertama-tama mohon maaf, koneksi internet di kantor putus nyambung dan putus nyambung. Semoga informasi yang terlambat di upload ini masih bermanfaat :) Saat ini tekanan jual di chart 4H menguat (S1 dan S2 sudah di break), sehingga bila S3 di tembus, bisa jadi situasi 4h ini akan berlanjut hingga besok (ini masih tergantung dengan data2 yang akan di-release malam ini). Sementara itu, chart daily stoch 15-3-3 masih mempertahankan momentumnya.

S1: 1.4958
S2: 1.4936
S3: 1.4900
S4: 1.4841

EUR/USD ( 11 November )

Melanjutkan perjalanan eur/usd (daily & 4H) yg telah diposting sebelumnya, hari ini (secara teknikal) chart 4H mulai kembali menunjukkan momentum ke atas (seperti yang ditunjukkan pada stochastic 5-3-3). Sementara pada chart Daily, stoch 15-3-3 makin memperkuat posisi "bullish"-nya.

R3: 1.5063
R2: 1.5033
R1: 1.5013
S1: 1.4951
S2: 1.4932
S1: 1.4901

EUR/USD ( 10 November )

Kemarin (9 November) harga 1.5000 sebagai level psikologis mampu ditembus. Meskipun stochastic daily masih mempertahankan momentum (ke atas),namun chart 4H (4 hour) mulai memperlihatkan tekanan jual (seperti pada gambar yang di upload hari ini). Pada kondisi ini, mungkin saya lebih suka menunggu konfirmasi chart 1H untuk kembali melakukan order long dengan take profit yang terbatas atau tergantung situasi (sebagai antisipasi kekuatan jual yang mulai ditunjukkan chart 4H).

R3: 1.5124
R2: 1.5059
R1: 1.5020
S1: 1.4886
S2: 1.4847
S3: 1.4784

EUR/USD today (November 9)

Catatan dari depan Komputer


Berlanjut dari hari jumat lalu (6 November) macd + stoch masih melanjutkan perjalanannya ke atas. Secara teknikal, masih ada cukup ruang bagi stochastic (15-3-3) agar running harga terus melanjutkan pergerakan ke atas, sementara value parameter signal macd kini berada di atas 0 (nol).

R3: 1.4957
R2: 1.4919
R1: 1.4895
S1: 1.4819
S2: 1.4795
S3: 1.4757

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Written by Mohammed Isah - fxtechstrategy.com
Monday, 09 November 2009 09:08

EURUSD: Sees Upside Momentum, Eyes The 1.5000 Level
EUR started off the week strongly holding firmly above the 1.4844 level and breaking through its Oct 27’09 high in early trading today. As referenced in our weekly analysis of the pair’s need to hold firmly above the 1.4844 level before further upside could be challenged and having validated that, EUR now has its eyes on its psycho level located at 1.5000 with a violation of there targeting its YTD high at 1.5062. A firm break above the latter will resume its MT uptrend and open the door for additional gains towards the 1.5082 level, its Aug 10’08 high and then its 1.5283 level, its May 04’08 low. Its daily studies are bullish and trending higher suggesting further strength. Downside objectives are seen at the 1.4926 level followed by the 1.4844 level where we expect a reversal of roles to occur. Further down, supports are sited at the 1.4670 level where its MT rising trendline is currently residing and then its Oct 02’09 low at 1.4479. On the whole, having started a new leg of bullish upmove, risks are presently seen towards the 1.5000 level and beyond.

EUR/USD today (November 6)

Catatan dari Depan Komputerku

Menarik bila kita mengamati chart daily eur/usd. Macd + stoch menunjukkan tekanan ke atas, meskipun ini masih terlihat prematur, mengingat bahwa parameter signal pada macd masih berada sedikit di bawah level 0 (nol).

R3: 1.4975
R2: 1.4932
R1: 1.4907
S1: 1.4823
S2: 1.4797
S3: 1.4755

GBP/USD today ( November 5)

The GBPUSD rallied sharply following the head and shoulders breakdown. The minimum head and shoulders objective of approximately 1.5200 was not reached. For now, the pair remains in a large range but with a downside bias as determined by the potentially completed A-B-C advance from 1.3500. 1.4855-1.5075 is a potential support zone.

The British Pound/US Dollar has become increasingly sensitive to interest rate developments, and we expect this will continue into the foreseeable future. Speculation over the future of Bank of England monetary policy has had an especially large impact on all British Pound currency pairs. This is especially true for any and all shifts in BoE Quantitative Easing measures, and any unexpected surprises from the British central bank would likely force substantial GBP/USD volatility.

(dailyfx.com)----------------

Catatan dari Mejaku



2 Stoch menunjukkan konsolidasi. Jadi apapun masih bisa terjadi (ya namanya juga forex, gitu aja kok repot) termasuk menabrak upper channel. Terlalu banyak data yang akan di release pada hari ini, jadi saya lebih baik minggir dulu ( yeeaahh \m/ ) sambil mengamati running chart 1h dan 4h.
Sementara ini, menurut saya, lebih baik duduk manis (ngerokok + kopi) dan menunggu kesempatan itu datang (terutama konfirmasi di 1h, 4h).
Sekian.. wassalam.

GBP/USD today ( November 4)

Despite strong recovery, pair remains unable to clearly break above the 1.6440 area, 20 SMA in the 4 hours charts still with a bearish slope. Hourly indicators seem a bit exhausted to the upside, while 20 SMA remains flat, suggesting some downside movements likely corrective, for the next couple of hours or so; the extension and speed of that movement will mark next sessions direction: if reaches the 1.6300 area, pair will try to extend downside rally under yesterday’s low.

Support levels: 1.6380 1.6330 1.6290

Resistance levels: 1.6440 1.6485 1.6520

( FXstreet.com Independent Analyst Team )

EUR/USD today (November 4)

Back above 61.8% retracement around 1.4700, pair turned slightly bullish in the hourly chart, yet indicators seem to have lost upside momentum while 20 SMA remains strongly bearish despite under current price. Bigger time frames show same conditions with pair slightly bullish yet with no enough strength, suggesting we need to see a strong acceleration above 1.4740 area to confirm an upside continuation. Next resistances for next hours come at 1.4770 and 1.4810, ahead of stronger 1.4850 area. However, market likely to remain in range ahead of key bank events starting with FOMC meeting next American session.

Support levels: 1.4705 1.5680 1.4630

Resistance levels: 1.4740 1.4770 1.4810

( FXstreet.com Independent Analyst Team )

USD/JPY today

The latest rally has stalled out just shy of our initial objective at 92.55 with the market initially well capped by the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud. Daily studies do however still show plenty of room to run, and we maintain our constructive outlook since the pair based out by 88.00. A higher low is now sought above 89.00, to be confirmed on an eventual break back above 92.55. Back under 89.00 however, will negate and put pressure on downside with market participants eying a retest of the critical 87.15 matched trend lows from 2008 and 2009.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

EUR/USD today

EUR/USD – The market has now entered a period of consolidation which we contend to be a bearish consolidation in light of the reversal on the weekly chart. Any rallies should now be very well capped ahead of 1.4860, with a downside break now favored to test critical support by the 50-Day SMA at 1.4660. The 50-Day SMA has supported the up-trend throughout much of 2009 and it will be interesting to see how the market reacts from there. A break and close below the 50-Day would be viewed as a significant development with the price action suggesting a material shift in the medium-term structure. Below 1.4660 would then expose 1.4480 further down.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Euro Grows Against Yen on Economical Optimism

The European currency surged against the Japanese yen and the other major Forex-traded currencies today as the traders reacted to the signs of the global economy recovery with buying high-yielding assets and currencies financed by relatively cheap loans in USD and JPY.

The euro has already recovered one third of its Friday daily drop against the Japanese currency. Positive reports from Australia, signaling a sure recovery from the recession, added optimism to the currency markets. The euro also gained versus the British pound as the latter moves not so fast against the dollar and the yen.

The ongoing recovery of the euro and the other high-yielding currencies may also be a part of technical correction, which followed a yen’s rally after CIT Group Inc. filed for bankruptcy on November 1st. Some analysts point out that the economical recovery process is what helps the euro, as the recovery itself (with a jump from decline to growth) supplies a good opportunity for a high-risk and high-yield gain.

The euro along with the Australian and New Zealand dollars is the current favorite for the carry trade opportunities on Forex. With 1, 3.25 and 2.5 percent, respectively, they stand against 0.25 and 0.1 percent interest rates of the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen, respectively.

EUR/JPY rose from 131.99 to 133.24 as of 9:42 GMT today, it opened the trading session with a gap and a downside rally, which has reached 131.56 level compared to Friday close at 132.57. EUR/USD advanced from 1.4732 to 1.4777, while EUR/GBP went up from 0.8984 to 0.9010 today.

(www.topforexnews.com)