Intraday EUR/USD 4 Pebruari 2010

Pada chart daily, tergambar di sana bahwa running pair Eur/Usd masih dalam tekanan momentum bearish-nya. Secara teknikal, belum ada "perlawanan" sama sekali terutama dari indikator Stochastic 15-5-5. Range yang terbentuk sejak hari senin (1 Pebruari) adalah pada level 1.4026 dan 1.3852.
Bila 1.3852 dapat ditembus, maka bukan tidak mungkin, chart daily akan meneruskan bearish momentumnya, dan memaksa chart monthly untuk makin memperkuat konfirmasi terhadap momentum ini. Sebaliknya, jika 1.3852/30 masih dapat bertahan, chart 1h mungkin akan melakukan koreksi terhadap chart daily.
Hari ini, ada banyak data fundamental yang akan di-release (dari sore hingga nanti malam). Mungkin ada baiknya agar kita lebih berhati-hati dalam melakukan entri pada hari ini.

R1: 1.3979
PV: 1.3926
S1: 1.3873
S2: 1.3839

Eur/Usd - 01 February 2010

Further Bearish Momentum Seen

While the toping out process that took EUR from the 1.6037 level in July’08 to the 1.2823 level in Oct’08 may not be the same with present one, the speed looks similar. The current weakness was triggered by a double shooting star candle pattern on the weekly chart(late Nov’09) and a bearish engulfing candle pattern(Dec’09) on the monthly and a follow- through lower on a monthly basis came in Jan’10. With the above price activities, EUR has topped out as a pattern of higher highs and lows has been broken and that of lower highs and lower lows is established(clearly seen on the weekly chart). This view is also supported by a reversal of almost 50% of its rally from the 1.2328-1.5143 levels. Also, we have evidence from The Dollar Index which has also bottomed out. With that said, we have our eyes on the downside for the continuation of the mentioned declines in the month of February with our downside targets coming in at the 1.3747/33 levels, its Jun 16’09 low/.50 Fib retracement(1.2328-1.5143 rally) where we expect a breather as that zone is layered with a lot of congestion highs and lows. Below there will pave the way for a move towards its .61 Fib retracement/May 18’09 low at 1.3440/22 and then the 1.3211 level, its May 2009 low. Its weekly and monthly RSI are bearish and trending lower supporting this view. However, on any recovery higher, its Jan 25’10 high at 1.4194 and the 1.4413 level, its Jan 19’10 will be targeted.

Written by Mohammed Isah - fxtechstrategy.com

Eur/Usd menunggu break out ? (27 Januari 2010)

Seperti artikel saya yang diposting sebelumnya, level 1.4000 adalah level support (psikologis) yang sampai saat ini masih kuat menahan running harga pair Eur/Usd. Bukan berarti level tersebut tidak dapat ditembus, karena biasanya pattern konsolidasi lebih bergantung pada data-data fundamental yang akan di-release hari ini dan hari-hari berikutnya.

Break-out pada level 1.4200 dan 1.4000, barangkali akan menjadi arah yang jelas bagi pergerakan selanjutnya, terutama momentum pada chart Daily.

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Technical Summary by fxtechstrategy.com (25-10-2010)

A follow through higher on its hammer print on the daily chart continues to stall as EURUSD is slightly offered after testing a recovery high of 1.4194 today. We retain our short term bearish bias on the pair while the 1.4216/92 levels cap recoveries. GBPUSD may be strengthening after failing to follow through lower on its past week gains but as long as those gains currently seen hold below the 1.6234/39 levels and its short term declining trendline presently at the 1.6412 level, we expect the pair to weaken and retarget the 1.5892/30 levels in the days ahead. EURJPY continues to maintain its short term bearish structure following its failure at the 134.36 level and its subsequent declines. It has been hesitating after failing at the 128.12 during today’s trading session. Overall risk remains lower. EURGBP is currently seeing a back off higher level prices having failed to continue its corrective recovery initiated at the 0.8650 level last week. Threats are now seen for a decline towards that level and possibly lower. AUDUSD remains vulnerable to the downside and looks to head further lower towards its key supports located at the 0.8936 and the 0.8733 levels. It will have to break and hold above the 0.9173 level to avert its current weakness. USDCAD continues to maintain its recovery triggered off the 1.0219 level as it looks to move further higher towards the 1.0743 level. Our outlook on USDJPY remains the same as we expect weakness to extend towards the 88.30 level and beyond. CRUDE OIL though strengthening marginally is still biased to the downside as it eyes a test of its long term rising trendline currently located at the 72.90 level.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis by forexcrunch.com

EUR/USD dived thus week into a lower range. The new range is marked by 1.42 that was the support line for the previous range and 1.40 which is a round number and also worked as stepping stone for the Euro on its way up.

After losing 1.42, EUR/USD traded between 1.4029 and 1.4182, keeping some distance from the range borders.

Above, 1.42, 1.4450, the previous border of the range is another resistance line. 1.4626 is another resistance line above that, followed by a major point at 1.48, which was the border of the high range.

Looking lower, 1.3750 is a very strong area of support for the Euro. It served as both a clear support line and resistance line in the past. Even lower, I’ve added a new line on last week’s outlook – 1.3420 is the next support line, quite far for now.

Intraday EUR/USD 21 Januari 2010

Seperti pada artikel yang ditulis sebelumnya (tgl 15 Januari), chart Daily mengalami perubahan momentum yang cukup signifikan setelah level 1.4335 dapat ditembus secara tegas. Secara teknikal, MACD pada chart Daily kini berada pada level di bawah 0 (nol). Yang cukup menarik perhatian kami adalah, pada chart 4H, running harga telah menyentuh lower channel. Bagaimanapun, kelihatannya level 1.4000 menjadi level support psikologis bagi pair Eur/Usd. Jadi, apabila 1.4000 mampu bertahan, maka retrace terhadap chart Daily mungkin akan terjadi. Tapi mengingat begitu banyaknya data (yang berkaitan dengan Euro) yang akan di-release sore ini, barangkali saya lebih suka menyimak running harga terlebih dahulu, hingga tercapai kondisi-kondisi untuk entri posisi yang
secara teknikal mungkin lebih menguntungkan (terutama pada chart 1H).

R1: 1.4234
PV: 1.4156
S1: 1.4019