Intraday EUR/USD 4 Pebruari 2010

Pada chart daily, tergambar di sana bahwa running pair Eur/Usd masih dalam tekanan momentum bearish-nya. Secara teknikal, belum ada "perlawanan" sama sekali terutama dari indikator Stochastic 15-5-5. Range yang terbentuk sejak hari senin (1 Pebruari) adalah pada level 1.4026 dan 1.3852.
Bila 1.3852 dapat ditembus, maka bukan tidak mungkin, chart daily akan meneruskan bearish momentumnya, dan memaksa chart monthly untuk makin memperkuat konfirmasi terhadap momentum ini. Sebaliknya, jika 1.3852/30 masih dapat bertahan, chart 1h mungkin akan melakukan koreksi terhadap chart daily.
Hari ini, ada banyak data fundamental yang akan di-release (dari sore hingga nanti malam). Mungkin ada baiknya agar kita lebih berhati-hati dalam melakukan entri pada hari ini.

R1: 1.3979
PV: 1.3926
S1: 1.3873
S2: 1.3839

Eur/Usd - 01 February 2010

Further Bearish Momentum Seen

While the toping out process that took EUR from the 1.6037 level in July’08 to the 1.2823 level in Oct’08 may not be the same with present one, the speed looks similar. The current weakness was triggered by a double shooting star candle pattern on the weekly chart(late Nov’09) and a bearish engulfing candle pattern(Dec’09) on the monthly and a follow- through lower on a monthly basis came in Jan’10. With the above price activities, EUR has topped out as a pattern of higher highs and lows has been broken and that of lower highs and lower lows is established(clearly seen on the weekly chart). This view is also supported by a reversal of almost 50% of its rally from the 1.2328-1.5143 levels. Also, we have evidence from The Dollar Index which has also bottomed out. With that said, we have our eyes on the downside for the continuation of the mentioned declines in the month of February with our downside targets coming in at the 1.3747/33 levels, its Jun 16’09 low/.50 Fib retracement(1.2328-1.5143 rally) where we expect a breather as that zone is layered with a lot of congestion highs and lows. Below there will pave the way for a move towards its .61 Fib retracement/May 18’09 low at 1.3440/22 and then the 1.3211 level, its May 2009 low. Its weekly and monthly RSI are bearish and trending lower supporting this view. However, on any recovery higher, its Jan 25’10 high at 1.4194 and the 1.4413 level, its Jan 19’10 will be targeted.

Written by Mohammed Isah - fxtechstrategy.com