FX Underground

GU H4 - 15 Desember 2010

2010-12-15T02:49:00.000-08:00

Udah lama gak posting ne...

Tanpa basa basi, langsung saja, setup Ichimoku + KGBS di chart GU H4
1. Ichimoku, setup standar, Tenkan-Kijun-Chinkou di OFF-kan, jadi tinggal cloud-nya aja.
2. KGBS, weekly bsband + weekly lsma, monthly bsband + monthly lsma

hasilnya seperti chart di bawah ini...

take profit di flat kumo H4 yang menjadi support (1.5661)
nyampe atau enggak ya?
ya gak tau lah... kita liat aja
klo gak nyampe ya tinggal nyari2 level buat lock profit aja (kalo sempat).. qqqq ^^

Review Gbp/Usd - 19 Sept 2010

2010-09-19T07:47:00.001-07:00

Running Gbp/Usd minggu lalu (15/09, 16/09, 17/09) bermain dan bertahan di atas SMA 200. Sebagai major trendline, terlihat cukup jelas pada chart time-frame H1 bahwa SMA 200 bergerak atau mengarah ke atas. Harga tertinggi pada Jumat minggu lalu (17/09) tercatat di level 1.5730 untuk kemudian mengalami koreksi (chart pattern membentuk formasi head and shoulder pada time-frame M15) dan tertahan (support) di kisaran level 1.5600/15.
Sementara itu stochastic 8 di time-frame yang sama, tampak seolah bersiap untuk menguji kembali resistant yang jumat lalu terbentuk di level 1.5730.

Pada chart time-frame M5, terbentuk wedge yang menyempit dari kisaran level 1.5646/35 (atas) dan 1.5612/11 (bawah). Dengan demikian, jika lower wedge di break maka 1.5580/70 adalah level yang mungkin akan menjadi target berikutnya. Sebaliknya, bila upper wedge yang di-break maka 1.5675/85 adalah level berikut yang mungkin akan tersentuh kembali. Bukan tidak mungkin resistant baru atau new high akan kembali terbentuk, sehingga makin mempertegas major trendline (SMA 200) yang bergerak uptrend dari pertengahan minggu lalu.

Review Gbp/Usd - 11 Sept 2010

2010-09-11T09:06:00.000-07:00

Running pair Gbp/Usd hari kamis dan jumat kemarin (9/09 & 10/09) pada dasarnya menunjukkan bahwa major trendline (MA 200) untuk sementara masih menunjukkan dominasinya. Hal ini tampak pada ujung-ujung atas stoch 8 di time-frame H1 (Hourly chart) yang masih menunjukkan downtrend, meskipun tampaknya running harga terus berusaha agar dapat bermain di atas garis MA 200.

Dengan demikian, level harga 1.5460/80 adalah level resisten yang harus ditembus agar harga kembali bermain di atas MA 200.

Bila kita melihat time-frame yang lebih kecil, cukup jelas terlihat bahwa minor (down) trendline telah di-break, dan kemudian running harga membentuk wedge pattern. Stoch 32 di time-frame M5 (5 minutes) yang sementara ini masih bermain di bawah level 50 menunjukkan bahwa sellers masih dominan pada hari jumat (10/09) hingga penutupan market sabtu dinihari.

Fundamental News 6 - 10 Sep 2010

2010-09-05T10:39:00.000-07:00

Senin/Monday, Sep 6

8:30am WIB, AUD, ANZ Job Advertisements m/m, Previous: 1.3%
3:30pm WIB, EUR, Sentix Investor Confidence, Forecast: 8.7, Previous: 8.2
All Day, CAD, Bank Holiday
All Day, USD, Bank Holiday

Selasa/Tuesday, Sep 7

Tentative, JPY, Overnight Call Rate, Forecast: 0.10%, Previous: 0.10%
11:30am WIB, AUD, Cash Rate, Forecast: 4.50%, Previous: 4.50%
11:30am WIB, AUD, RBA Rate Statement, Forecast: 4.50%, Previous: 4.50%
Tentative, JPY, BOJ (Bank Of Japan) Press Conference
7th-8th, GBP, Halifax HPI m/m, Forecast: -0.3%, Previous: 0.6%
5:00pm WIB, EUR, German Factory Orders m/m, Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: 3.2%

Rabu/Wednesday, Sep 8

8:30am WIB, AUD, Home Loans m/m, Forecast: 1.1%, Previous: -3.9%
3:30pm WIB, GBP, Manufacturing Production m/m, Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.3%
7:30pm WIB, CAD, Building Permits m/m, Forecast: -4.7%, Previous: 6.5%
8:00pm WIB, CAD, BOC Rate Statement
8:00pm WIB, CAD, Overnight Rate, Forecast: 1.00%, Previous: 0.75%
9:00pm WIB, CAD, Ivey PMI, Forecast: 55.9, Previous: 54

Kamis/Thursday, Sep 9

8:30am WIB, AUD, Employment Change, Forecast: 25.3K, Previous: 23.5K
8:30am WIB, AUD, Unemployment Rate, Forecast: 5.2%, Previous: 5.3%
3:30pm WIB, GBP, Trade Balance, Forecast: -7.5B, Previous: -7.4B
6:00pm WIB, GBP, Asset Purchase Facility, Forecast: 200B, Previous: 200B
Tentative, GBP, MPC Rate Statement
6:00pm WIB, GBP, Official Bank Rate, Forecast: 0.50%, Previous: 0.50%
7:15pm WIB, CAD, Housing Starts, Forecast: 185K, Previous: 189K
7:30pm WIB, CAD, Trade Balance, Forecast: -0.8B, Previous: -1.1B
7:30pm WIB, USD, Trade Balance, Forecast: -47.4B, Previous: -49.9B
7:30pm WIB, USD, Unemployment Claims, Forecast: 470K, Previous: 472K

Jumat/Friday, Sep 10

6:50am WIB, JPY, Final GDP q/q, Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.1%
Tentative, CNY, Trade Balance, Forecast: 26.9B, Previous: 28.7B
3:30pm WIB, GBP, PPI Input m/m, Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: -1.0%
6:00pm WIB, CAD, Employment Change, Forecast: 23.9K, Previous: -9.3K
6:00pm WIB, CAD, Unemployment Rate, Forecast: 8.0%, Previous: 8.0%
9:00pm WIB, USD, Wholesale Inventories m/m, Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.1%

Intraday Gbp/Usd - 5 September 2010

2010-09-04T09:09:00.000-07:00

Pair Gbp/Usd seperti yang ditunjukkan pada chart H1 (Hourly Chart), sempat menyentuh MA 200 yang saya anggap sebagai major trendline, dan mencapai level 1.5463. Minor trendline yang dipetakan ketika stoch 32 berada di bawah level 50, menunjukkan bahwa hari jumat minggu lalu (3/9/2010) uptrend tengah berlangsung dan berusaha menembus major trendline (MA 200). Sementara stoch 32 menunjukkan buyers masih lebih dominan ketimbang sellers pada hari jumat kemarin.

Dari gambar tersebut, terlihat cukup jelas bahwa minor trendline memiliki support di kisaran level 1.5425/15, sehingga bila level2 support tersebut ditembus maka major trendline (MA 200) tampaknya akan masih akan meneruskan downtrendnya. Sebaliknya, bila support masih tetap bertahan, maka uptrend minor akan terus berlanjut dan bahkan akan merubah peta MA 200, atau paling tidak harga akan bermain di atas MA 200.

Sementara itu, bila kita melihat pada timeframe yang lebih kecil, M5 (5 minutes chart), jelas terlihat bahwa range harga membentuk wedge pattern, yang juga ikut menegaskan alur minor uptrend jumat lalu. Posisi sell dengan TP (take profit) yang terbatas (10 pips) masih memungkinkan apabila wedge di break ke bawah.

Intraday Euro/USD - 21 Mei 2010

2010-05-20T21:56:00.000-07:00

Pergerakan pair Eur/Usd makin mendekati stochastic buyers balance pada chart Daily. Sementara pada chart 4 Hour, stochastic sudah berada pada level buyers yang lebih dominan.
Bila running harga masih tetap bermain di mR1 (1.2574) sampai dengan pembukaan sesi Eropa, bukan tidak mungkin level mR3 (1.2703) adalah target berikut yang akan tersentuh.
Sebaliknya, jika running harga turun dan terjaga hingga di bawah mS1 (1.2401), maka level S1 (1.2345) adalah target berikut yang mungkin akan tersentuh.

Yesterday High: 1.2596
Yesterday Low: 1.2294
Previous Daily Candle Status: Bullish Candle

mR3: 1.2703
R2: 1.2645
mR1: 1.2516
PV: 1.2459
mS1: 1.2401
S1: 1.2345

Intraday Euro / USD - 20 Mei 2010

2010-05-19T21:43:00.000-07:00

Stochastic chart 4H (hour) hari ini berada di area buyers. Sementara pada chart Daily, stochastic cenderung bergerak untuk meninggalkan area sellers.
Sampai pada saat artikel ini ditulis, running pair Eur/Usd masih berada pada bayang-bayang ichimoku, di chart 30M (minute), atau berada di bawah Middle R1 dan di atas Pivot.
Bila nanti running harga bermain di bawah Pivot (1.2326), maka Middle S1 (1.2273) mungkin akan menjadi target berikut yang akan dikejar.
Sebaliknya, jika running harga bermain di atas Middle R1 (1.2380), maka R1 (1.2433) adalah level yang menjadi target berikutnya.

Yesterday High: 1.2422
Yesterday Low: 1.2143
Yesterday Daily Candle Status: Bullish Candle
R1: 1.2433
mR1: 1.2380
PV: 1.2326
mS1: 1.2273
S1: 1.2219

Intraday Euro / USD - 19 Mei 2010

2010-05-18T23:18:00.000-07:00

Pair Eur/Usd, sampai hari ini masih dalam momentum bearish-nya. Stochastic di time frame 4H dan Daily masih tetap berada pada level sellers area.
Sampai detik artikel ini diturunkan, running harga masih berada dalam bayang-bayang indikator ichimoku. Pair ini akan mencoba untuk koreksi, apabila dia mampu menembus naik ke level Middle S1 (1.2215) hingga ke pivot (1.2269). Sebaliknya, jika dia mampu menembus dan kemudian bermain di bawah level S1 (1.2161), maka down momentum mungkin akan kembali berlanjut.

PV: 1.2269
Middle S1: 1.2215
S1: 1.2161

Intraday Eur/Usd - 21 April 2010

2010-04-20T20:41:00.000-07:00

Stochastic dan OsMA di chart 4H saat ini cenderung searah dengan indikator pada chart Daily. Saat ini harga pair Eur/Usd masih bermain di kisaran level support tgl. 6 kemarin (1.3408). Jika momentum ini tetap terjaga sampai sesi Eropa dan London, maka bisa jadi level berikut yang akan menjadi target berikut adalah level support tgl. 6 dan tgl. 9 yang lalu, di kisaran level 1.3352/40.

Tgl. 20: 1.3516
R1: 1.3487
PV: 1.3454
Tgl. 6: 1.3408
S1: 1.3393
Tgl. 6 / Tgl. 9: 1.3352 / 40

Data yang akan di-release sore nanti:
3:30pm WIB, GBP Claimant Count Change
3:30pm WIB, GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
9:15pm WIB, USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Intraday Eur/Usd - 15 April 2010

2010-04-14T22:19:00.000-07:00

Setelah terjadi gap pada hari senin kemarin dan membentuk resistant/high di level 1.3684 (12/4), lalu terkoreksi hingga ke level 1.3538 (13/4), dan kemudian bergerak kembali untuk mencoba menyentuh 1.3684, maka saat ini stochastic pair ini pada chart 4H cenderung memberikan informasi akan terjadi koreksi terhadap chart Daily.
Jika momentum ini tetap terjaga di sesi eropa, bisa jadi target berikut yang akan tersentuh ada di level S1 (1.3600), dan bukan tidak mungkin hingga ke level 1.3587 (tgl 1/4).

Level-level Support & Resistant
Tgl 12/4: 1.3683
PV: 1.3636
S1: 1.3600
Tgl 1/4: 1.3587

Intraday Eur/Usd - 9 April 2010, 11:10 WIB

2010-04-08T21:24:00.001-07:00

Indikator chart time-frame 4H memberikan konfirmasi bahwa ia sedang melakukan koreksi terhadap indikator chart Daily. Running harga di pair ini masih bermain di level support dan resistant terdekat, yang tidak jauh berbeda dengan hari kemarin. Namun bila momentum tf 4H tetap bertahan sampai dengan sesi London nanti, bukan tidak mungkin level 1.3404 (tgl 7/4) akan kembali tersentuh.
Level 1.3454 (tgl 5/4) menjadi resistant yang bila tersentuh - bisa jadi - akan membalikkan situasi pada chart Daily. Sementara level support kemarin, 1.3276 (tgl 8/4), menjadi penopang kuat momentum koreksi tf 4H, yang apabila tersentuh kembali, akan mempertegas (down) trend pada chart Daily.

R2: 1.3414
Tgl 7/4: 1.3404
R1: 1.3383
PV: 1.3329
S1: 1.3300
Tgl 8/4: 1.3276

Intraday Eur/Usd - 8 April 2010

2010-04-07T22:15:00.000-07:00

Tekanan jual pada stochastic dan osma terlihat dan terkonfirmasi pada chart daily. Sementara ini, support terdahulu pada level 1.3260 (tgl 25/3) masih menjadi tahanan yang kuat. Range support dan resistant yang terbentuk hingga hari ini adalah pada level harga 1.3404 (tgl 7/4) - 1.3260 (25/3).
Konfirmasi pada chart daily akan semakin tegas, apabila level 1.3260 dapat ditembus. Meskipun demikian, koreksi 4H terhadap daily masih mungkin terjadi. Terutama apabila 1.3387 (R1) tersentuh, hingga ke 1.3404.
Stochastic dan osma pada chart 4H, masih menunjukkan dominasi momentum sellers, meskipun osma mulai bergerak ke level balance-nya.

R2: 1.3436
Tgl 7/4: 1.3404
R1: 1.3387
PV: 1.3352
S1: 1.3301
S2: 1.3267
Tgl 25/3: 1.3260

Data fundamental penting yang akan di-release sore nanti:
3:30pm WIB, GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
6:00pm WIB, GBP Official Bank Rate
6:45pm WIB, EUR Minimum Bid Rate
7:30pm WIB, EUR ECB Press Conference
7:30pm WIB, USD Unemployment Claims

Intraday Eur/Usd - 7 April 2010, 3:45 PM WIB

2010-04-07T01:44:00.000-07:00

Ketika artikel ini ditulis, harga pair Eur/Usd (time frame 4H) berada di antara Pivot dan S1, sementara Stochastic cenderung bergerak naik dan OsMA juga demikian meski ia masih berada di area negatif (di bawah nol).
Pada kondisi seperti ini, saya lebih suka menunggu 1.3349 (low tgl 6/4), atau 1.3404 (high tgl sekarang) ditembus. Mungkin dengan target profit yang terbatas terlebih dahulu, sambil menunggu konfirmasi berikutnya.

R2: 1.3553
R1: 1.3453
PV: 1.3410
Low Tgl 6/4: 1.3349
S1: 1.3329
S2: 1.3266

Intraday Gbp/Usd & Eur/Usd - 5 April 2010

2010-04-04T09:43:00.000-07:00

GBP/USD. Jika harga bergerak naik dan bisa berada di atas 1.5240, maka level 1.5299 adalah target berikut yang mungkin akan tersentuh. Sampai di area ini harga bisa terpantul, atau jika mampu menembus LSMA Weekly kembali, maka harga akan terus bergerak naik.

Sebaliknya, jika pergerakan running harga Gbp/Usd tertahan di level 1.5210 hingga 1.5240 ( gagal bermain di area atas balance hariannya), maka pergerakan harga GU akan turun dengan target level 1.5125 atau bahkan 1.5082.

(Analisa teknikal Gbp/Usd di atas, dikirim oleh Tri Cahyo Rahadiyanto, atau Zulsky id/nick di Marketiva. Ia adalah pemerhati dan pengguna KG Sistem)

EUR/USD. Setelah data NFP di-release jumat lalu (tgl 2/4), indikator Stochastic dan OsMA pada chart 4H menunjukkan koreksi (terhadap chart Daily) setelah sebelumnya harga sempat menyentuh level 1.3587 (High tgl 2/4), sehingga level 1.3454 (tgl 1/4) adalah menjadi target berikutnya yang mungkin akan tersentuh. Bila momentum ini terus bertahan sampai dengan sesi Eropa dan London, bahkan hingga sesi US, bukan tidak mungkin level support 1.3378 (tgl 31/3) akan menjadi target berikutnya.
Sementara itu, indikator Stochastic dan OsMA pada chart daily masih masih menunjukkan bahwa buyers masih memegang peranan ketimbang sellers. Level support 1.3260 (tgl 25/3) masih menjadi support yang kuat bagi momentum ini.

Ketika Stochastic dan OsMA Bercerita Tentang Divergensi

2010-03-31T20:46:00.000-07:00

Kali ini, saya cuma ingin sharing info tentang divergensi pada indikator Stochastic dan OsMA. Secara umum, pengertian divergensi adalah, ketika indikator bergerak cenderung berlawanan dengan runing harga, ketika pada saat-saat ia mendekati dan berusaha menembus level-level support atau resistant terdahulu.

Pengertian secara umum ini barangkali lebih tepat atau lebih cocok, atau dapat terlihat, pada Time Frame yang lebih besar dari sekadar 15 menit sampai dengan 1 jam (saya lebih suka melihat/menangkap indikasi ini pada TF 4H atau 4 jam).

Pada time frame yang lebih kecil, tentu saja dapat terlihat, biasanya pada saat detik-detik menjelang news (data fundamental) dan sesudahnya. Tapi tingkat resiko pada time frame yang lebih kecil barangkali malah lebih tinggi kecuali jika kita meletakkan take profit (dan stop loss) yang lebih moderat ketimbang pada time frame yang lebih besar.

Pada time frame yang lebih besar (4H), kecenderungan bahwa running harga pada akhirnya "takluk" dengan situasi divergence, persentasenya (dengan terpaksa saya mengatakan) lebih besar. Mengapa? Karena pengalaman saya berkata demikian.

Lantas, bagaimana menyikapi situasi divergensi ini? Jika kita adalah trader yang agresif, barangkali averaging position adalah jawabannya. Namun bila kita adalah trader yang moderat, mungkin mencuri posisi pada time frame yang lebih kecil (misalnya TF 15 menit) adalah lebih bijak dan tepat. Saya sendiri, lebih menyukai sikap yang moderat, karena bagi saya memperkecil tingkat loss itu adalah bagian dari seni pengaturan strategi dan antisipasi pergerakan harga (selain tentu saja, Money Management). Karena bagaimanapun, tingkat resiko (loss) divergensi ini selalu saja membayangi (jangan lupa bahwa indikator apapun sifatnya selalu follower terhadap harga), meskipun pengalaman saya mengatakan bahwa indikasi divergensi pada time frame 4H sebagian besar dapat mengantisipasi pergerakan harga berikutnya.

Ilustrasi/gambar di atas adalah sekadar contoh saja, ketika indikator Stochastic dan Osma, bercerita tentang Bullish Divergence...

~ 1 April 2010 ~

Intraday Eur/Usd 31 Maret 2010

2010-03-31T05:14:00.000-07:00

Secara teknikal, indikator Stochastic dan OsMA time frame 4H, cenderung searah dengan pergerakan indikator time frame daily. Sehingga bisa jadi, hambatan/resistant di 1.3530 (30/3) akan menjadi target berikutnya, bila momentum ini tetap terjaga pada sesi US nanti.

R2: 1.3582
30 Maret: 1.3530
R1: 1.3493
PV: 1.3441
S1: 1.3353

Intraday Eur/Usd 30 Maret 2010

2010-03-29T20:31:00.000-07:00

Indikator stochastic saat ini cenderung untuk menekan ke bawah, sementara indikator OsMA masih berada di area positif meskipun ia juga cenderung turun. Range yang terbentuk sejak hari senin kemarin adalah berada di antara level harga 1.3505 - 1.3418. Stochastic berada dalam situasi bearish divergence (stochastic cenderung bergerak turun, sementara harga cenderung bergerak naik untuk menembus high kemarin (29/3) di level 1.3505 hingga ke level 1.3568 (23/3). Barangkali adalah lebih bijak untuk memperhatikan time frame 5 minutes chart hingga 30 minute chart untuk melakukan entri posisi (dengan take profit 10 - 15 pips) dalam situasi seperti ini, hingga Stochastic dan OsMA pada chart 4H memberikan konfirmasi yang jelas.

R2: 1.3548, High (23/3): 1.3568
R1: 1.3511, High (29/3): 1.3505
PV: 1.3443
S1: 1.3424
S2: 1.3375

Data fundamental yang akan di-release hari ini:
1:00pm WIB, GBP Nationwide HPI m/m
3:30pm WIB, GBP Final GDP q/q
9:00pm WIB, USD CB Consumer Confidence

Intraday Eur/Usd - 26 Maret 2010

2010-03-25T20:07:00.000-07:00

Dominasi seller sejak tanggal 24 hingga hari ini mampu menembus support februari kemarin (1.3434). Saat ini, pada chart 4 Hour, range yang terbentuk ada di kisaran level 1.3380 - 1.3260. Indikator stochastic (8-5-5) dan OsMA (12-26-7) saat ini menunjukkan bahwa pair Eur/Usd sedang mengalami koreksi terhadap chart Daily. Running harga sekarang berada di kisaran 1.3320/30, berada di antara Pivot dan R1. Sehingga apabila R1 (1.3343) dapat ditembus maka hal ini menegaskan momentum koreksi seperti pada indikator Stochastic dan OsMA di chart 4H, dan bisa jadi R2 (1.3421)adalah target berikut yang akan disentuh. Tapi sebaliknya, jika low (harga terendah) kemarin (1.3260) ditembus hari ini, momentum jual akan terus berlanjut.

R2: 1.3421
R1: 1.3343
PV: 1.3302
Low kemarin (26 Maret 2010): 1.3260
Support weekly chart (25-4-2009): 1.2887

Data fundamental yang akan di-release hari ini:
Day 2 EUR EU Economic Summit
7:30pm WIB, USD Final GDP q/q
8:55pm WIB, USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
10:30pm WIB, USD FOMC Member Warsh Speaks
11:00pm WIB, EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks

Intraday EUR/USD 24 Maret 2010

2010-03-23T20:21:00.000-07:00

Pair Eur/Usd saat ini mengalami momentum jual, menyusul tekanan terhadap mata uang Uni Eropa terhadap upaya penyelamatan krisis utang negara Yunani. Secara teknikal, pair Eur/Usd telah menembus Low minggu lalu (1.3463), sementara indikator stochastic di time frime 4 Hour chart masih menunjukkan tekanan bearish-nya, demikian juga dengan indikator MACD yang masih berada di area negatif.
Saat ini harga telah melewati S1 (1.3454). Sehingga, apabila harga melewati low tanggal 3 februari 2010 (1.3434), akan semakin mempertegas bearish momentum pada time frime 4 Hour chart. Sebaliknya, jika harga kembali ke Pivot (1.3509), ada peluang untuk melakukan koreksi terhadap 4 Hour chart.

R2: 1.3603
R1: 1.3548
PV: 1.3509
S1: 1.3454
Low 3 Februari 2010: 1.3434

Data Fundamental (release 24 Maret 2010)
4:00pm WIB EUR German Ifo Business Climate
7:30pm WIB GBP Annual Budget Release
7:30pm WIB USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
9:00pm WIB USD New Home Sales

Eur/Usd - Daily Technical Strategist (March 19, 2010)

2010-03-19T04:58:00.000-07:00

EURUSD: Continues To Retain Its Corrective To Consolidation Tone

With an unsustained strength above the 1.3800 region on Wednesday pushing the pair to a lower close at 1.3736 and a follow through lower seen in early trading today, a test of its Mar 09’10 low at 1.3536 could be shaping up. However, despite its current price hesitation, EUR still retains its corrective to consolidation tone unless the 1.3433 level, its 2010 low is recaptured and its medium term declines triggered. On the upside, above the 1.3838 level, its Feb 09’10 high will create scope for further upside gains towards its Feb 03’10 high sited at 1.4025 where a cap is expected.

Written by Mohammed Isah
Thursday, 18 March 2010 12:11
FXTechstrategy.com

Eur/Usd - Daily Technical Strategist (March 3, 2010)

2010-03-03T06:31:00.000-08:00

EURUSD: Correction Eyes The 1.3682/92 Levels.

EURUSD: As a build up on its Tuesday hammer formation continues to shape up, we are seeing upside risk towards the 1.3682 level, its Feb 26’10 high and its Feb 23’10 high at 1.3691 initially. This corrective recovery is coming on the heels of EUR’s price failure at the 1.3433 level on Tuesday followed with a hammer formation (bottom reversal signal). On a clean penetration and negation of these levels, further upside risk should develop towards the 1.3787 level, its Feb 17’10 high and next its Feb 01’10 high/Feb 09’10 low at the 1.3838/51 levels. We expect the latter zone to cap corrective recovery gains if seen and turn the pair lower again in line with its broader downside weakness. On the other hand, if a failure is seen at its current price levels, threat will turn lower towards its Year-To-Low at 1.3433 with a violation of there triggering its medium term downtrend resumption towards the towards its Jun 03’09 low at 1.3211 and next its big psycho level at 1.3000.

By Mohammed Isah - fxtexhstrategy.com

Intraday EUR/USD 4 Pebruari 2010

2010-02-03T21:30:00.001-08:00

Pada chart daily, tergambar di sana bahwa running pair Eur/Usd masih dalam tekanan momentum bearish-nya. Secara teknikal, belum ada "perlawanan" sama sekali terutama dari indikator Stochastic 15-5-5. Range yang terbentuk sejak hari senin (1 Pebruari) adalah pada level 1.4026 dan 1.3852.
Bila 1.3852 dapat ditembus, maka bukan tidak mungkin, chart daily akan meneruskan bearish momentumnya, dan memaksa chart monthly untuk makin memperkuat konfirmasi terhadap momentum ini. Sebaliknya, jika 1.3852/30 masih dapat bertahan, chart 1h mungkin akan melakukan koreksi terhadap chart daily.
Hari ini, ada banyak data fundamental yang akan di-release (dari sore hingga nanti malam). Mungkin ada baiknya agar kita lebih berhati-hati dalam melakukan entri pada hari ini.

R1: 1.3979
PV: 1.3926
S1: 1.3873
S2: 1.3839

Eur/Usd - 01 February 2010

2010-02-01T00:06:00.000-08:00

Further Bearish Momentum Seen

While the toping out process that took EUR from the 1.6037 level in July’08 to the 1.2823 level in Oct’08 may not be the same with present one, the speed looks similar. The current weakness was triggered by a double shooting star candle pattern on the weekly chart(late Nov’09) and a bearish engulfing candle pattern(Dec’09) on the monthly and a follow- through lower on a monthly basis came in Jan’10. With the above price activities, EUR has topped out as a pattern of higher highs and lows has been broken and that of lower highs and lower lows is established(clearly seen on the weekly chart). This view is also supported by a reversal of almost 50% of its rally from the 1.2328-1.5143 levels. Also, we have evidence from The Dollar Index which has also bottomed out. With that said, we have our eyes on the downside for the continuation of the mentioned declines in the month of February with our downside targets coming in at the 1.3747/33 levels, its Jun 16’09 low/.50 Fib retracement(1.2328-1.5143 rally) where we expect a breather as that zone is layered with a lot of congestion highs and lows. Below there will pave the way for a move towards its .61 Fib retracement/May 18’09 low at 1.3440/22 and then the 1.3211 level, its May 2009 low. Its weekly and monthly RSI are bearish and trending lower supporting this view. However, on any recovery higher, its Jan 25’10 high at 1.4194 and the 1.4413 level, its Jan 19’10 will be targeted.

Written by Mohammed Isah - fxtechstrategy.com

Eur/Usd menunggu break out ? (27 Januari 2010)

2010-01-26T21:01:00.000-08:00

Seperti artikel saya yang diposting sebelumnya, level 1.4000 adalah level support (psikologis) yang sampai saat ini masih kuat menahan running harga pair Eur/Usd. Bukan berarti level tersebut tidak dapat ditembus, karena biasanya pattern konsolidasi lebih bergantung pada data-data fundamental yang akan di-release hari ini dan hari-hari berikutnya.

Break-out pada level 1.4200 dan 1.4000, barangkali akan menjadi arah yang jelas bagi pergerakan selanjutnya, terutama momentum pada chart Daily.

Menyimak komentar orang lain kadang2 perlu

2010-01-25T21:18:00.000-08:00

Technical Summary by fxtechstrategy.com (25-10-2010)

A follow through higher on its hammer print on the daily chart continues to stall as EURUSD is slightly offered after testing a recovery high of 1.4194 today. We retain our short term bearish bias on the pair while the 1.4216/92 levels cap recoveries. GBPUSD may be strengthening after failing to follow through lower on its past week gains but as long as those gains currently seen hold below the 1.6234/39 levels and its short term declining trendline presently at the 1.6412 level, we expect the pair to weaken and retarget the 1.5892/30 levels in the days ahead. EURJPY continues to maintain its short term bearish structure following its failure at the 134.36 level and its subsequent declines. It has been hesitating after failing at the 128.12 during today’s trading session. Overall risk remains lower. EURGBP is currently seeing a back off higher level prices having failed to continue its corrective recovery initiated at the 0.8650 level last week. Threats are now seen for a decline towards that level and possibly lower. AUDUSD remains vulnerable to the downside and looks to head further lower towards its key supports located at the 0.8936 and the 0.8733 levels. It will have to break and hold above the 0.9173 level to avert its current weakness. USDCAD continues to maintain its recovery triggered off the 1.0219 level as it looks to move further higher towards the 1.0743 level. Our outlook on USDJPY remains the same as we expect weakness to extend towards the 88.30 level and beyond. CRUDE OIL though strengthening marginally is still biased to the downside as it eyes a test of its long term rising trendline currently located at the 72.90 level.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis by forexcrunch.com

EUR/USD dived thus week into a lower range. The new range is marked by 1.42 that was the support line for the previous range and 1.40 which is a round number and also worked as stepping stone for the Euro on its way up.

After losing 1.42, EUR/USD traded between 1.4029 and 1.4182, keeping some distance from the range borders.

Above, 1.42, 1.4450, the previous border of the range is another resistance line. 1.4626 is another resistance line above that, followed by a major point at 1.48, which was the border of the high range.

Looking lower, 1.3750 is a very strong area of support for the Euro. It served as both a clear support line and resistance line in the past. Even lower, I’ve added a new line on last week’s outlook – 1.3420 is the next support line, quite far for now.

Intraday EUR/USD 21 Januari 2010

2010-01-20T23:28:00.000-08:00

Seperti pada artikel yang ditulis sebelumnya (tgl 15 Januari), chart Daily mengalami perubahan momentum yang cukup signifikan setelah level 1.4335 dapat ditembus secara tegas. Secara teknikal, MACD pada chart Daily kini berada pada level di bawah 0 (nol). Yang cukup menarik perhatian kami adalah, pada chart 4H, running harga telah menyentuh lower channel. Bagaimanapun, kelihatannya level 1.4000 menjadi level support psikologis bagi pair Eur/Usd. Jadi, apabila 1.4000 mampu bertahan, maka retrace terhadap chart Daily mungkin akan terjadi. Tapi mengingat begitu banyaknya data (yang berkaitan dengan Euro) yang akan di-release sore ini, barangkali saya lebih suka menyimak running harga terlebih dahulu, hingga tercapai kondisi-kondisi untuk entri posisi yang
secara teknikal mungkin lebih menguntungkan (terutama pada chart 1H).

R1: 1.4234
PV: 1.4156
S1: 1.4019

Intraday EUR/USD 15 Januari 2010

2010-01-14T22:07:00.001-08:00

Chart 4H (4 Hour) kali ini menunjukkan down momentum yang dikonfirmasi oleh indikator Stochastic dan MACD (di bawah level 0). Harga sedang berada pada level 1.4430/32 ketika tulisan ini di-upload. Sementara itu MACD pada chart Daily masih berada di atas level 0 (nol). Sehingga, barangkali bisa diambil kesimpulan (secara teknikal) bahwa chart 4H sedang melakukan koreksi terhadap Daily. Yang menarik adalah, level pada chart Daily justru berada pada area upper channel. Jadi bila level 1.4335 (S3) dapat ditembus hari ini, maka bisa jadi akan terjadi perubahan momentum pada chart Daily. Sebaliknya, jika level 1.4405 (Low hari ini) dapat bertahan, bukan tidak mungkin chart Daily akan meneruskan up-momentumnya.

R1: 1.4553
PV: 1.4500
S1: 1.4445
S2: 1.4391
S3: 1.4335

Intraday EUR/USD 14 Januari 2010

2010-01-13T22:51:00.000-08:00

Harga berada pada level 1.4535/37 ketika tulisan ini di-upload. Sejauh ini, tekanan "buy" masih mendominasi pergerakan pair ini. Secara teknikal, hal ini ditunjukkan dengan value MACD yang masih berada di atas 0 (nol), sehingga bukan tidak mungkin level tertinggi 2 (dua) minggu terakhir ini (1.4577) dapat dikejar kembali. Koreksi terhadap periode 4H juga masih bisa terjadi dengan take profit yang terbatas, selama 1.4577 tidak ditembus pada hari ini.

R1: 1.4573
PV: 1.4514
S1: 1.4451
S2: 1.4392

Selamat Natal (buat yang merayakan) dan Tahun Baru 2010

2009-12-16T23:05:00.000-08:00

Blog ini akan di-update lagi pada bulan Januari 2010
Sukses selalu buat Anda semua!

Buge Satrio Lelono

EUR/USD (Desember 11)

2009-12-10T20:10:00.001-08:00

Indikator pada chart Daily menunjukkan oversold, dan seolah-olah bersiap melakukan koreksi terhadap running daily. Bila hari ini harga mampu menembuslevel 1.4778 (9/12), hal ini akan mengkonfirmasi koreksi terhadap daily. Sebaliknya, jika harga turun hingga ke level 1.4665 (9/12), running menuju level 1.4623 (3/11) menjadi hal yang mungkin saja akan terjadi.

R3: 1.4797
R2: 1.4759
R1: 1.4735
PV: 1.4721
S1: 1.4692
S2: 1.4659

EUR/USD (Desember 7)

2009-12-07T01:08:00.000-08:00

Hari ini, indikator pada chart 4H sudah masuk pada level2 overbought, namun pada chart Daly, tekanan jual justru baru terlihat, dan konfirmasinya cukup meyakinkan. Namun, news/data yang akan di release nanti malam juga patut untuk diwaspadai (8:00pm WIB - EUR: ECB President Trichet Speaks, 8:30pm WIB - CAD: Building Permits m/m).

R1: 1.5027
PV: 1.4925
S1: 1.4821
S2: 1.4758
S3: 1.4638

EUR/USD (Desember 4)

2009-12-03T21:11:00.000-08:00

Hari ini, running harga berkisar pada level pivot (1.5080) dan S1 (1.5044), setelah kemarin (3 Des) harga tidak mampu menembus 1.5049 (25 Nov). Indikator stochastic 5-3-3 (4H) telah berada di area oversold-nya, sementara stochastic 15-3-3 masih memiliki ruang untuk perjalanan down-momentumnya. Posisi sell/short masih dimungkinkan jika kita merujuk pada stoch 15-3-3. Meski demikian, posisi (pending order) buy limit barangkali juga patut diperhitungkan, atau menunggu konfirmasi 1H yang bisa meyakinkan kita untuk meletakkan posisi buy/long. Data-data yang akan di-release malam ini harus juga diperhitungkan/dipertimbangkan.

R2: 1.5142
R1: 1.5118
PV: 1.5080
S1: 1.5044
S2: 1.5020

EUR/USD (Desember 3)

2009-12-02T22:40:00.000-08:00

Setelah kemarin indikator stochastic 5-3-3 (4H) menyentuh area oversold-nya, hari ini tampaknya indikator tersebut kembali menguatkan up-momentum stochastic 15-3-3. Sementara macd tetap berada pada area positif (di atas nol). Saat ini harga telah menyentuh level 1.5095 (R1). Bila harga mampu menembus level 1.5104, hingga ke 1.5112, maka hal ini memperkuat kondisi up-momentum chart 4H (dan searah dengan chart Daily). Sebaliknya, bila harga turun dan menyentuh 1.5034 hingga ke 1.5016 (S2), indikator chart 4H akan kembali mengalami tekanan jual.

R3: 1.5143
R2: 1.5112
R1: 1.5094
PV: 1.5064
S1: 1.5034
S2: 1.5016
S3: 1.4984

EUR/USD (Desember 2)

2009-12-01T20:24:00.000-08:00

Harga EU saat ini berada di antara pivot dan R1. Sementara indikator stoch berada di area overbought di chart 4H, dan stoch 5-3-3 terlihat seperti sedang menunjukkan down-momentumnya. Pada chart Daily, indikator macd masih bertahan pada posisi di atas level 0, atau berada di area positif, dan indikator stoch terlihat berusaha mempertahankan up-momentumnya. Namun koreksi terhadap daily bukan tidak mungkin terjadi, terutama bila harga bisa menembus 1.5070 hingga ke level di bawah pivot (1.5028), maka hal ini akan mempertegas down-momentum indikator 4H. Sebaliknya, bila harga mampu menembus 1.5113, hingga ke level 1.5130, maka hal ini justru mempertegas indikator pada chart Daily.

R2: 1.5147
R1: 1.5113
PV: 1.5057
S1: 1.5001
S2: 1.4965

EUR/USD (Desember 1)

2009-11-30T22:05:00.000-08:00

Saat ini level harga EU berada pada kisaran pivot dan S1. Stoch 15-3-3 masih menunjukkan up-momentum, sementara stoch 5-3-3 terlihat seperti masih (atau sudah?) melakukan konsolidasi. Bila harga EU mampu menembus 1.5065, maka stoch 5-3-3 akan memperkuat posisi stoch 15-3-3 pada jalur up-momentumnya. Sebaliknya, bila level 1.4970 (S1) bisa dilewati hingga ke 1.4942 (S2), maka hal ini makin mempertegas indikator pada chart daily yang berada dalam tekanan jual.

R2: 1.5091
R1: 1.5062
PV: 1.5017
S1: 1.4970
S2: 1.4942

EUR/USD (November 30)

2009-11-29T20:13:00.000-08:00

EUR/USD chart 4H, Jumat lalu mengalami penurunan yang cukup dalam (mungkin 200 pips lebih). Saat ini indikator pada chart 4H menunjukkan bahwa EUR/USD masih memiliki ruang untuk melanjutkan perjalanan ke atasnya dan harga telah menembus level R2 (1.5062). Bila harga 1.5098 mampu di tembus, bukan hal yang tidak mungkin level 1.5134 (R3) mampu disentuh. Sebaliknya, bila level 1.5134 tidak tersentuh, konfirmasi 1H untuk meletakkan pending order (sell limit/sell stop), tentu saja dibutuhkan, mengingat bahwa indikator di chart Daily justru menunjukkan bahwa EUR/USD sedang mengalami tekanan jual.

R3: 1.5134
R2: 1.5062
R1: 1.5018
PV: 1.4946
S1: 1.4875
S2: 1.4829

EUR/USD & AUD/USD (November 26)

2009-11-25T19:45:00.000-08:00

EUR/USD. Indikator chart EU 4H, masih menunjukkan up momentum, sementara stochastic ada pada posisi flat di area over bought-nya. Pada chart daily, terlihat bahwa masih ada cukup ruang bagi macd + stoch, untuk terus melanjutkan running-up-nya. Meski demikian, koreksi di chart 4H masih mungkin terjadi, terutama jika stoch (15-3-3 dan 5-3-3) pada chart 4H, bersama-sama melengkung ke bawah, atau dibutuhkan konfirmasi 1H yang cukup meyakinkan kita bahwa EU sedang dalam tahapan koreksi terhadap momentum daily.

R1: 1.5154
PV: 1.5080
S1: 1.5005
S2: 1.4958

AUD/USD. Pada chart AU, 4H, koreksi terhadap daily sedang terjadi, setelah kemarin bersama-sama dengan pair EU terus menerus melakukan break level2 resistent. Saat ini level harga AU berada di kisaran S1. Bila break S2, ini akan mempertegas momentum 4H-nya.

R1: 0.9327
PV: 0.9274
S1: 0.9224
S2: 0.9193
S3: 0.9141

EUR/USD (November 25)

2009-11-24T21:51:00.000-08:00

Di chart 4H, running price telah menyentuh upper channel. Sementara pada chart Daily, stoch + macd justru terlihat seperti mengkonfirmasi momentum ke atasnya. Meski demikian, saya masih butuh konfirmasi chart 1H dan 4H pada sore atau malam hari nanti, untuk entri order posisi. Saat ini, running harga masih tertahan di level2 1.4980/98 (R2), bila harga mencapai level 1.5023 hingga ke 1.5045, maka pergerakan ini mempertegas konfirmasi dari indikator di chart daily. Sebaliknya, bila 1.5007 tidak mampu di tembus, maka chart 4h kemungkinan besar akan mengkonfirmasi posisi short/sell.

R3: 1.5045
R2: 1.4995
R1: 1.4983
S1: 1.4906
S2: 1.4882

EUR/USD (November 24)

2009-11-23T21:40:00.000-08:00

Hari ini, EU pada chart 4H kembali mengalami tekanan jual. Momentum ini akan semakin jelas bila level 1.4898 berhasil dilalui hingga ke 1.4865 (S1). Sebaliknya, bila level 1.4993 dan kemudian 1.5032 berhasil ditembus, maka kemungkinan besar ini mengkonfirmasi chart daily yang masih cenderung dalam keadaan flat.

R2: 1.5032
R1: 1.4993
S1: 1.4865
S2: 1.4826
S3: 1.4764

EUR/USD (November 23)

2009-11-22T21:14:00.000-08:00

I am back ! (setelah seminggu bedrest di rumah, karena gejala typhus). Langsung saja kita bahas pair EU pada chart 4H. Indikator (macd+stoch) menunjukkan bahwa peluang untuk (paling tidak) menyentuh upper channel, masih terbuka (mengingat bahwa harga saat ini bergerak di kisaran R2). Sedangkan pada chart daily, indikator menunjukkan gerakan yang flat dan cenderung turun, sehingga menempatkan pending order (sell limit) barangkali juga patut diperhitungkan.

R3: 1.4997
R2: 1.4946
R1: 1.4914
S1: 1.4813
S2: 1.4781
S3: 1.4730

EUR/USD (November 13)

2009-11-12T22:06:00.000-08:00

Hari ini, stochastic 15-3-3 & 5-3-3 (chart Daily) mulai kehilangan momentumnya dan menunjukan tekanan jual, macd (5-12-3) ikut mendukung situasi ini. Secara teknikal penurunan harga masih bisa terjadi, apalagi juga support (S2: 1.4772) berhasil ditembus. Pada situasi ini (seperti biasa) saya lebih suka mengamati chart 1H dan 4H untuk mencari konfirmasi entri, dan tentu saja, menghindari (atau mencermati) ketika ada data yang hendak di-release hari ini (2:00pm WIB EUR - German Prelim GDP q/q, 8:30pm WIB USD - Trade Balance)

R3: 1.5089
R2: 1.5015
R1: 1.4967
S1: 1.4820
S2: 1.4772
S3: 1.4698

EUR/USD (November 12)

2009-11-12T04:12:00.000-08:00

Pertama-tama mohon maaf, koneksi internet di kantor putus nyambung dan putus nyambung. Semoga informasi yang terlambat di upload ini masih bermanfaat :) Saat ini tekanan jual di chart 4H menguat (S1 dan S2 sudah di break), sehingga bila S3 di tembus, bisa jadi situasi 4h ini akan berlanjut hingga besok (ini masih tergantung dengan data2 yang akan di-release malam ini). Sementara itu, chart daily stoch 15-3-3 masih mempertahankan momentumnya.

S1: 1.4958
S2: 1.4936
S3: 1.4900
S4: 1.4841

EUR/USD ( 11 November )

2009-11-10T23:49:00.000-08:00

Melanjutkan perjalanan eur/usd (daily & 4H) yg telah diposting sebelumnya, hari ini (secara teknikal) chart 4H mulai kembali menunjukkan momentum ke atas (seperti yang ditunjukkan pada stochastic 5-3-3). Sementara pada chart Daily, stoch 15-3-3 makin memperkuat posisi "bullish"-nya.

R3: 1.5063
R2: 1.5033
R1: 1.5013
S1: 1.4951
S2: 1.4932
S1: 1.4901

EUR/USD ( 10 November )

2009-11-09T22:07:00.000-08:00

Kemarin (9 November) harga 1.5000 sebagai level psikologis mampu ditembus. Meskipun stochastic daily masih mempertahankan momentum (ke atas),namun chart 4H (4 hour) mulai memperlihatkan tekanan jual (seperti pada gambar yang di upload hari ini). Pada kondisi ini, mungkin saya lebih suka menunggu konfirmasi chart 1H untuk kembali melakukan order long dengan take profit yang terbatas atau tergantung situasi (sebagai antisipasi kekuatan jual yang mulai ditunjukkan chart 4H).

R3: 1.5124
R2: 1.5059
R1: 1.5020
S1: 1.4886
S2: 1.4847
S3: 1.4784

EUR/USD today (November 9)

2009-11-09T00:17:00.000-08:00

Catatan dari depan Komputer

Berlanjut dari hari jumat lalu (6 November) macd + stoch masih melanjutkan perjalanannya ke atas. Secara teknikal, masih ada cukup ruang bagi stochastic (15-3-3) agar running harga terus melanjutkan pergerakan ke atas, sementara value parameter signal macd kini berada di atas 0 (nol).

R3: 1.4957
R2: 1.4919
R1: 1.4895
S1: 1.4819
S2: 1.4795
S3: 1.4757

---------------------------------------------------

Written by Mohammed Isah - fxtechstrategy.com
Monday, 09 November 2009 09:08

EURUSD: Sees Upside Momentum, Eyes The 1.5000 Level
EUR started off the week strongly holding firmly above the 1.4844 level and breaking through its Oct 27’09 high in early trading today. As referenced in our weekly analysis of the pair’s need to hold firmly above the 1.4844 level before further upside could be challenged and having validated that, EUR now has its eyes on its psycho level located at 1.5000 with a violation of there targeting its YTD high at 1.5062. A firm break above the latter will resume its MT uptrend and open the door for additional gains towards the 1.5082 level, its Aug 10’08 high and then its 1.5283 level, its May 04’08 low. Its daily studies are bullish and trending higher suggesting further strength. Downside objectives are seen at the 1.4926 level followed by the 1.4844 level where we expect a reversal of roles to occur. Further down, supports are sited at the 1.4670 level where its MT rising trendline is currently residing and then its Oct 02’09 low at 1.4479. On the whole, having started a new leg of bullish upmove, risks are presently seen towards the 1.5000 level and beyond.

EUR/USD today (November 6)

2009-11-05T21:46:00.001-08:00

Catatan dari Depan Komputerku

Menarik bila kita mengamati chart daily eur/usd. Macd + stoch menunjukkan tekanan ke atas, meskipun ini masih terlihat prematur, mengingat bahwa parameter signal pada macd masih berada sedikit di bawah level 0 (nol).

R3: 1.4975
R2: 1.4932
R1: 1.4907
S1: 1.4823
S2: 1.4797
S3: 1.4755

GBP/USD today ( November 5)

2009-11-05T00:12:00.000-08:00

The GBPUSD rallied sharply following the head and shoulders breakdown. The minimum head and shoulders objective of approximately 1.5200 was not reached. For now, the pair remains in a large range but with a downside bias as determined by the potentially completed A-B-C advance from 1.3500. 1.4855-1.5075 is a potential support zone.

The British Pound/US Dollar has become increasingly sensitive to interest rate developments, and we expect this will continue into the foreseeable future. Speculation over the future of Bank of England monetary policy has had an especially large impact on all British Pound currency pairs. This is especially true for any and all shifts in BoE Quantitative Easing measures, and any unexpected surprises from the British central bank would likely force substantial GBP/USD volatility.

(dailyfx.com)----------------

Catatan dari Mejaku

2 Stoch menunjukkan konsolidasi. Jadi apapun masih bisa terjadi (ya namanya juga forex, gitu aja kok repot) termasuk menabrak upper channel. Terlalu banyak data yang akan di release pada hari ini, jadi saya lebih baik minggir dulu ( yeeaahh \m/ ) sambil mengamati running chart 1h dan 4h.
Sementara ini, menurut saya, lebih baik duduk manis (ngerokok + kopi) dan menunggu kesempatan itu datang (terutama konfirmasi di 1h, 4h).
Sekian.. wassalam.

GBP/USD today ( November 4)

2009-11-03T22:45:00.000-08:00

Despite strong recovery, pair remains unable to clearly break above the 1.6440 area, 20 SMA in the 4 hours charts still with a bearish slope. Hourly indicators seem a bit exhausted to the upside, while 20 SMA remains flat, suggesting some downside movements likely corrective, for the next couple of hours or so; the extension and speed of that movement will mark next sessions direction: if reaches the 1.6300 area, pair will try to extend downside rally under yesterday’s low.

Support levels: 1.6380 1.6330 1.6290

Resistance levels: 1.6440 1.6485 1.6520

( FXstreet.com Independent Analyst Team )

EUR/USD today (November 4)

2009-11-03T22:43:00.000-08:00

Back above 61.8% retracement around 1.4700, pair turned slightly bullish in the hourly chart, yet indicators seem to have lost upside momentum while 20 SMA remains strongly bearish despite under current price. Bigger time frames show same conditions with pair slightly bullish yet with no enough strength, suggesting we need to see a strong acceleration above 1.4740 area to confirm an upside continuation. Next resistances for next hours come at 1.4770 and 1.4810, ahead of stronger 1.4850 area. However, market likely to remain in range ahead of key bank events starting with FOMC meeting next American session.

Support levels: 1.4705 1.5680 1.4630

Resistance levels: 1.4740 1.4770 1.4810

( FXstreet.com Independent Analyst Team )

USD/JPY today

2009-11-03T02:28:00.000-08:00

The latest rally has stalled out just shy of our initial objective at 92.55 with the market initially well capped by the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud. Daily studies do however still show plenty of room to run, and we maintain our constructive outlook since the pair based out by 88.00. A higher low is now sought above 89.00, to be confirmed on an eventual break back above 92.55. Back under 89.00 however, will negate and put pressure on downside with market participants eying a retest of the critical 87.15 matched trend lows from 2008 and 2009.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

EUR/USD today

2009-11-03T02:26:00.000-08:00

EUR/USD – The market has now entered a period of consolidation which we contend to be a bearish consolidation in light of the reversal on the weekly chart. Any rallies should now be very well capped ahead of 1.4860, with a downside break now favored to test critical support by the 50-Day SMA at 1.4660. The 50-Day SMA has supported the up-trend throughout much of 2009 and it will be interesting to see how the market reacts from there. A break and close below the 50-Day would be viewed as a significant development with the price action suggesting a material shift in the medium-term structure. Below 1.4660 would then expose 1.4480 further down.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Euro Grows Against Yen on Economical Optimism

2009-11-02T05:02:00.000-08:00

The European currency surged against the Japanese yen and the other major Forex-traded currencies today as the traders reacted to the signs of the global economy recovery with buying high-yielding assets and currencies financed by relatively cheap loans in USD and JPY.

The euro has already recovered one third of its Friday daily drop against the Japanese currency. Positive reports from Australia, signaling a sure recovery from the recession, added optimism to the currency markets. The euro also gained versus the British pound as the latter moves not so fast against the dollar and the yen.

The ongoing recovery of the euro and the other high-yielding currencies may also be a part of technical correction, which followed a yen’s rally after CIT Group Inc. filed for bankruptcy on November 1st. Some analysts point out that the economical recovery process is what helps the euro, as the recovery itself (with a jump from decline to growth) supplies a good opportunity for a high-risk and high-yield gain.

The euro along with the Australian and New Zealand dollars is the current favorite for the carry trade opportunities on Forex. With 1, 3.25 and 2.5 percent, respectively, they stand against 0.25 and 0.1 percent interest rates of the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen, respectively.

EUR/JPY rose from 131.99 to 133.24 as of 9:42 GMT today, it opened the trading session with a gap and a downside rally, which has reached 131.56 level compared to Friday close at 132.57. EUR/USD advanced from 1.4732 to 1.4777, while EUR/GBP went up from 0.8984 to 0.9010 today.

(www.topforexnews.com)

Top 10 Myths about Forex

2009-10-02T05:59:00.000-07:00

Forex is a market where exchange of one currency with another currency takes place. It’s the market which provides accessibility and liquidity to the traders to buy and sell one foreign currency in exchange of another.

Forex traders seek profit in buying currencies low and selling them high. This kind of trading became more popular with the widespread of the on-line Forex brokers. There is a lot of information available about Forex on the web. However there also many myths surrounding the foreign exchange market:

1. Forex trading is easy. Many people that want to dive into the world of the foreign exchange market believe that the Forex trading is easy — you just read a book or two and then you will be able to earn daily profits with just 2-3 hours trading daily. Others think that they can buy a profitable strategy and it will make them rich in Forex. In reality that’s just a myth. Succeeding in Forex isn’t easier than mastering any other profession — it takes time, money and a lot of practice.

2. "I will make money in Forex, if I can trade stocks successfully." Success in stock market doesn’t imply that you will get success in Forex market — there are many differences between trading stocks and the spot currencies. First of all, Forex market requires a lot of hard work and dedication as this market is open for 24 hours a day. You cannot just sit in front of your computer for the whole day and night, so the best way is that you should find the most suitable time periods for trading. Second, “buy&hold„ strategy simply won’t work in Forex market. Third, you don’t have that much information about currencies as you can get from the companies’ reports and statistics.

3. "I can make profit whenever I want if Forex market is open 24 hours a day." Once again, you won’t be sitting in front of your PC for the whole day to be able to trade 24 hours. You’ll have to develop automated trading software to get the advantage of 24 hours a day working schedule.

4. "I can be a successful Forex trader just following someone else’s signals." Many beginning traders get burned by the blind signal-following. That’s like putting away the whole responsibility for your actions to someone else. That may sound cool, but in reality you end up with the huge losses. Learn to rely on your own knowledge and skills. Remember that there were no great signal-followers in any financial market.

5. No commission is to be paid in Forex market. You only have to pay the spread, but you don’t have to pay the commission. And what’s spread? It is the difference between the buy and sell price of the currency pair at the same moment. You may end up with the major part of your profits in the broker’s hands if you plan to rely on the short-term trading.

6. Forex is a scam. Some skeptics and disappointed traders think that Forex is just some new fad to scam people for their hard earned money. Although there are many scams that are hiding behind the "brand" of Forex, that doesn’t mean that the Forex itself is a scam. There are many institutional Forex brokers, regulated Forex account managers and other solid companies in the market to whom you can trust.

7. "I need to exactly predict the market outcome to be profitable in Forex." There is no scientific method to know something in advance in the market with a 100% certainty. There would be no Forex market if you could know the exact currency rates beforehand. Trading is not the game of certainties; it’s a game of odds. One of the first things that new traders learn is to think in the terms of probabilities and risk-to-reward ratios.

8. "I need to use a very complex strategy to be successful in Forex." It’s a popular myth, in which many on-line sellers would want you to believe. The main requirement to be successful in Forex is a self-discipline and money management. There are many traders that make consistent profits with rather simple and old strategies.

9. "I need to have a lot of starting capital to get profit in Forex." Big capital investment won’t help you in Forex. You don’t need a lot of money to diversify in currencies and you can’t move the currency rates with your trading orders (you’d need billions of dollars to do that). Actually you can trade with a very a little capital, because Forex trading is almost always leveraged with the broker’s money.

10. Forex is gambling because it’s completely random. Although there is no certainty in Forex (as in any financial market) it doesn’t mean that it’s completely random. And it’s certainly not a gambling, since your success in this market depends mostly on your skills and experience, not on your luck.

Knowledge is power — so it’s better for you to learn distinguishing some stereotypical myths from the real thing. Don’t fall for the promises of getting some easy profits in Forex, but don’t be afraid of the market just because some people think it’s not possible to earn there. Be rational — this quality will help you either if you are going to trade in Forex or not.

Fundamental Factors behind Major Currencies

2009-10-02T05:06:00.000-07:00

Every currency traded in Forex is influenced by the conditions in its country of origin, and the external relations that affect its value. Economic Indicators (GDP growth, import/export trade accounts), social factors (unemployment rate, real estate market conditions) and the country’s central bank policy are the factors that determine the currency value in the Forex market. Each one of the six major currencies has its particularities, and we are going to analyze the fundamentals that drive the currencies individually.

The U.S. dollar (USD) is the most traded currency in the Forex market. It is also used as a measure to evaluate other currencies and commodities. The reserves in USD are by far the largest being held by different nations, and they compose 64% of the world reserves. Globally speaking, the fundamentals that drive the U. S. Dollar are several. Since the largest amount of metallic commodities and the oil are mostly traded with prices in USD, significant demand variations in these markets will reflect directly on the currency value, as it happened in 2008 with the EUR/USD reaching 1.60, being the oil price a big contributor for this event. In the domestic market, the biggest factor that has been moving the dollar are the industry indicators and the real estate boom, and both were caused by an unsustainable credit system which could not be paid, causing a domino effect in the United States economy, and consequently, worldwide. During the last few years, the USD has been losing ground for other currencies, thanks to the credit bubble, and erroneous social policies, but it will still remain as one of the most powerful currencies for an undetermined period of time.

The euro (EUR) is by far the newest currency traded among the major pairs traded on Forex markets. It is used by 16 European Union member countries and it tends to enlarge during the next few years. The fundamental factors that move the Euro are often based on the strongest economies using the new common currency, such as: France, Italy and mainly Germany. The countries’ indicators regarding export trade, inflation and unemployment rate tend to have a high impact on the EUR movements, considering that countries such as Germany are larger exporters of manufactures and technology. Europe still remains an energy dependant from the Russian gas and the Middle Eastern Oil, making higher demands for these commodities to have a negative reflect on the European Union common currency.

The pound sterling (GBP) is the national currency of the United Kingdom, and the fundamental factors that move it are as complex and variable as the British economy and its global influence. The London commodity market plays a fundamental role in the GBP trends, being a reference for oil and gold trading. Nevertheless, as a powerful and globally dynamic economy, the United Kingdom indicators, social situation and the housing sector are perhaps the main determinant factors for the GBP price. Lately, the British economy has faced inflation issues, which led the interest rates to be cut, industrial recession, and other domestic factors that made the trading movements to naturally flow from the GBP towards other strong economically backed currencies, such as the EUR.

The Japanese yen (JPY) is the strongest and by far the most traded currency in the Asian market. Japan’s economy is mainly orientated to the industrial production exportation, and the economic situation of its main commercial partner, the USA, tends to have a direct influence on the JPY market. The JPY is a low-yield currency, being the GBP/JPY the most volatile pair traded on Forex, usually the scalper’s favorite one.

Switzerland is a small country located in the European Alps, yet, its strong international trade and money influx, made the Swiss franc (CHF), one of the main currencies traded on Forex. The CHF is often preferred by low yield investors. In times of financial instability, such as for the last years with the USD, many traders choose the CHF as a safe investment. The CHF trends can be often compared to those of the gold, increasing their value while other markets’ tends to depreciate during economic downturns.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces a similar situation with the other commodity currencies, being majorly an export-dependable. Most of the Canadian production is exported to the USA. Facing the very same credit bubble problem that dragged America into recession, Canada has to deal also with a decreasing demand for all commodities. The CAD usually correlates positively with the prices for the all commodities.